Should Trans People Flee the United States

The Question I Never Wanted to Ask

There are things I never imagined I'd seriously consider. One of them is fleeing this country I've called home.

As a trans woman, writer, and public advocate, I've spent years agitating against the state's oppressive systems while building community with those who share visions of collective liberation. I've never harbored romantic notions about American exceptionalism or placed faith in its institutions. Yet there was always a stubborn belief that we could carve out spaces of resistance and mutual aid within its borders. Lately, even that modest hope feels increasingly tenuous. And I know I'm not alone.

In 2025, a quiet but persistent question echoes through group chats, late-night conversations, and mutual aid networks: Should we start planning to leave?

It's not a question rooted in panic. It's rooted in pattern recognition. The conditions for widespread repression of trans people in the United States are no longer theoretical—they're materializing around us. For some, they already have.

Some nights I lie awake wondering if the community I've built here will still exist in a year. If the work I've poured my heart into will be criminalized. If the friends who feel like chosen family will be scattered to the winds.

This essay isn't meant to give a definitive answer. It's meant to name the moment we're in, clarify what thresholds might signal a deeper emergency, and help trans people—and our cis friends—begin making decisions rooted in clarity, not fear.

At stake now is our basic dignity, autonomy, and right to exist openly. The threats facing transgender people in the U.S. have moved beyond rhetoric into concrete legal and governmental actions:

• Federal restrictions on essential healthcare.

• Criminalization of everyday trans identity and public existence.

• Potential use of emergency powers targeting marginalized communities.

• Increasing hostility and violence encouraged by state and media rhetoric.

Current and Emerging Threats

To understand our options clearly, we must first recognize the scale of current threats.

There's something almost liturgical about how trans people are being systematically erased—a ritual of exclusion repeating weekly in legislative chambers across the country. This isn't just about politics—it's about whether our bodies are allowed to be sacred vessels of truth or forced to become tombs of imposed falsehood.

The past few years have seen an explosion of anti-trans legislation, executive orders, and social scapegoating. What began as a handful of state-level bills has metastasized into a national strategy.

By mid-2024, over 550 anti-LGBTQ+ bills had been introduced across the United States—many of them targeting trans youth, healthcare, education, and public presence. According to the Human Rights Campaign (HRC), at least 84 bills restricting gender-affirming care were introduced in the first quarter of 2023 alone.

At the federal level, things have worsened under the current administration. In early 2025, the Trump administration issued executive orders that:

• Eliminated federal recognition of gender identity by requiring agencies to interpret "sex" as strictly biological, based on sex assigned at birth

• Revoked protections for trans people in federal custody, mandating that individuals be housed according to their birth-assigned sex rather than their lived identity

• Prohibited the provision of gender-affirming care in federal detention facilities

A Timeline of Key Federal Actions (2025)

• January 2025: Executive Order "Protecting Children from Chemical and Surgical Mutilation" signed, redefining “children” to include individuals under 19.

• February 2025: Hospitals in blue states pause care for trans adolescents and young adults after federal threats; courts intervene.

• February 2025: DHS (Department of Homeland Security) has removed prior protections limiting surveillance of individuals based on sexual orientation or gender identity.

• April 2025: CMS issues letter pressuring states to halt care for those under 21, causing immediate disruptions.

• April 2025: DHS revokes parole for over 900,000 migrants, ordering self-deportation.

• Forthcoming: HHS prepares biased report on gender-affirming care; internal NIH memo references “chemical mutilation” and “detransition.”

These actions, taken together, mark a coordinated campaign to remove trans people from public life by destabilizing medical, legal, and social infrastructure.

This is accompanied by rhetoric that casts trans people as ideological enemies. At CPAC 2023, a speaker infamously stated, "Transgenderism must be eradicated from public life entirely." That shift—from debate to dehumanization—is no longer hypothetical. It's here.

Meanwhile Several states have introduced bills that criminalize public trans identity—through restroom bans, restrictions on ID usage, or treating gender incongruence as "fraud."

Empire has always demanded conformity, but the body knows its own truth. When the state demands we lie about ourselves, our very breath becomes resistance.

Risk Is Not Evenly Distributed

Yet, even as all trans people face growing danger, it's crucial to recognize the varied ways oppression manifests depending on intersecting identities.

While all trans people in the U.S. are facing rising hostility, not all of us are equally at risk. The intersection of gender identity with race, class, disability, immigration status, and public visibility creates vastly different realities.

• Trans Women—especially Black and Brown trans women—face disproportionate violence and are often the first symbolic targets.

• Trans Youth are facing forced detransition, state surveillance, and family separation in hostile states.

• BIPOC Trans People are targeted by overlapping systems of racism, poverty, and transphobia.

• Disabled Trans People may be trapped in care systems or unable to travel safely.

• Undocumented Trans People live under threat of detention and deportation with few safe options.

• Public Trans Figures and Activists face surveillance, doxxing, and state scrutiny.

For instance, Black and Brown trans women, already disproportionately subjected to violence and incarceration, are increasingly targeted by laws criminalizing survival activities like sex work or even simply appearing in public spaces. Disabled trans individuals face heightened risks when states restrict healthcare access, trapping them within hostile care systems. Undocumented trans migrants face detention and deportation into life-threatening situations, while trans youth in states like Texas face traumatic separation from affirming families. Each intersection compounds vulnerability, turning theoretical dangers into life-threatening realities.

I want to acknowledge that this essay focuses specifically on threats to transgender people not to minimize the parallel struggles of other targeted communities, but to provide a focused analysis for one affected group. Immigrants, Muslims, and communities of color face their own versions of state violence and persecution under the current administration. Indeed, these struggles are deeply interconnected – the same machinery of oppression that targets trans people also seeks to criminalize asylum seekers, suppress Muslim communities, and maintain white supremacy.

The administration's successful invocation of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 (a wartime law historically used to detain and expel individuals from countries deemed hostile) against Venezuelan migrants demonstrates how willingly it will deploy archaic, authoritarian frameworks against vulnerable groups. The border emergency declaration and threats to invoke the Insurrection Act (which allows the President to deploy military forces domestically under emergency conditions to suppress civil disorder or rebellion) further illustrate how easily exceptional powers can be normalized when directed at those already marginalized. These are not isolated threats but manifestations of the same authoritarian impulse that endangers us all.

We stand in a long lineage of those who've had to discern when to stay and when to flee—carrying not just our belongings but our stories, our rituals, our ways of seeing the world. I wrestle with what it means to be faithful to this place that shaped me while also being faithful to the truth of who I am.

Each of us is navigating a different balance of risk and resources. And any strategy—resistance, relocation, or survival—must be shaped by that reality.

3 Tipping Points to Consider

Given these escalating dangers, how do we discern the moment when staying becomes untenable?

The question isn't just "Should we leave?" but "When would we have to?" How do we discern when an increasingly hostile environment crosses from difficult to dangerous? From dangerous to deadly?

Here are three thresholds that, if crossed, should prompt serious consideration of flight—especially for those most at risk.

1. A Federal Ban on Gender-Affirming Care

What makes this a tipping point: Access to gender-affirming healthcare is not a luxury—it's essential to many trans people's survival. When a government criminalizes or eliminates access to care that allows people to live as themselves, it crosses from hostility to actively endangering lives. A federal ban would supersede state protections, potentially leaving nowhere safe within U.S. borders to access hormones, surgeries, or other necessary treatments.

We've already seen the dress rehearsal. The administration is rapidly moving to restrict transgender healthcare at the federal level, with alarming evidence of a coordinated campaign that targets not just youth but adults as well. On April 11, 2025, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a formal letter warning states about funding gender-affirming care for patients under age 21, using sterilization regulations to pressure states to drop coverage of puberty blockers, hormones, or surgeries for anyone under 21.

The effects were immediate. Planned Parenthood of Arizona "paused" all gender-affirming services for adults soon after the CMS guidance was released, even though the directive only explicitly addressed care for those under 21. Staff began referring trans patients to providers "that do not rely on federal funding," and a 23-year-old trans woman in Mesa had her hormone therapy appointment abruptly canceled. While Planned Parenthood Arizona has since resumed care after a brief review, this "pre-compliance" demonstrates how quickly access can vanish even for adults.

This pattern extends beyond isolated incidents. In Massachusetts and New York, hospitals "stopped providing [gender-affirming] care to trans adolescents and young trans adults" immediately after Trump's January executive order, until courts intervened. Others have quietly scrubbed references to trans services from their websites to avoid federal scrutiny.

What's at stake: For those on hormone therapy, forced detransition isn't just emotionally devastating—it triggers profound physical and psychological distress. Imagine your body being forcibly reconfigured against your will, every day growing more foreign to your sense of self. Studies demonstrate that involuntary detransition substantially increases suicidality and psychological distress.

For youth particularly, losing access during key developmental windows can mean irreversible changes that no future care can fully address. For many, the choice becomes stark: flee to maintain basic bodily autonomy or remain and watch your body become a battleground for political ideology.

Beyond individual suffering lies a deeper question: Can we participate in a society that deems our bodies unworthy of care? That declares medical consensus irrelevant when applied to us? That would rather see us suffer than flourish? The message is clear: you are not welcome here as yourself.

There's a spiritual violence in such exclusion—a fundamental rejection of our sacred personhood. When a nation says, "We will not allow you to exist as who you are," it has broken the social covenant. At that point, seeking refuge elsewhere becomes not just reasonable but necessary.

2. Criminalization of Public Trans Identity

What makes this a tipping point: Laws targeting the public expression of trans identity—like Texas' proposed "gender identity fraud" bill—create conditions where simply existing openly becomes illegal. When breathing while trans becomes a criminal act, a fundamental red line has been crossed.

These laws wouldn't just target those who "look trans" but would criminalize the basic administrative reality of trans life: updating ID documents, filling out forms, using facilities, applying for jobs or housing. The mundane infrastructures of daily existence would become minefields of potential prosecution.

We're witnessing an acceleration of this criminalization already. Kansas' recent law defining sex as "immutable from birth" for all state purposes effectively voids recognition of trans people in legal contexts. Restroom bills in 18 states now carry criminal penalties. And Tennessee's latest "fraud" bill classifies being transgender in certain public contexts as a Class E felony—subject to prison time.

The federal government is increasingly framing transgender identity itself as fraudulent or deceptive. The language used in the administration's executive orders, HHS whistleblower guidance, and NIH research directive consistently characterizes gender-affirming care as "chemical and surgical mutilation" – rhetoric that mirrors language used to pass Florida's SB 254 (legislation severely restricting adult transgender healthcare by banning telemedicine prescriptions, requiring burdensome in-person consent forms, and eliminating Medicaid coverage).

What's at stake: Under such regimes, trans people face impossible choices: live as your authentic self and risk arrest, or hide who you are and suffer the psychological devastation of forced concealment. Every job application, rental agreement, or government form becomes a potential criminal trap.

The practical consequences are severe. Employment becomes nearly impossible for those whose documents don't match their presentation. Housing security evaporates. Even daily activities like visiting the grocery store carry the risk of confrontation or arrest.

More fundamentally, these laws transform citizenship itself. To be trans becomes to be inherently outside the law—a non-citizen in your own country. The state declares that your very existence constitutes fraud, that your truth is legally defined as a lie.

There's something profoundly distorting about living in a society that mandates your dishonesty, that requires you to bear false witness against yourself. It corrupts not just political belonging but spiritual integrity. When staying requires constant self-betrayal, leaving becomes an act of both survival and faith.

3. Expanded Use of Emergency Powers

What makes this a tipping point: The invocation of extraordinary executive powers—like the Insurrection Act or Alien Enemies Act—marks a fundamental shift from normal governance to exceptional authority. These acts allow for military deployment on domestic soil, detention without standard due process, and the suspension of normal legal protections.

This threshold has already been partially crossed. The administration has successfully invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to summarily deport Venezuelan migrants without hearings, classifying them as "hostile aliens from an enemy nation." In January 2025, the Supreme Court upheld this use of the 227-year-old law in a 6-3 decision, granting extraordinary deference to executive authority in matters of national security.

It's important to recognize that this use of emergency powers has extended beyond Venezuelan migrants. International students and campus activists, notably those involved in pro-Palestinian activism, have also been targeted with visa revocations and deportation proceedings. High-profile cases, such as those of Mahmoud Khalil at Columbia University and Rümeysa Öztürk at Tufts University, illustrate how swiftly the administration has acted against individuals involved in political expression. Furthermore, in April 2025, the Department of Homeland Security revoked parole for over 900,000 migrants who had entered the U.S. using the CBP One app, compelling them to leave immediately or face deportation. This broader pattern of targeting diverse groups under national security pretenses underscores the expansive and escalating nature of the threat we face.

This represents a dangerous threshold already crossed—not a hypothetical future concern. The successful deployment of wartime powers against a civilian population demonstrates both the administration's willingness to use emergency frameworks against targeted groups and the judiciary's acceptance of such measures. It creates legal precedent for designating entire categories of people as "enemies" with minimal judicial review.

Meanwhile, on January 20, 2025, President Trump signed Executive Order 14987, declaring a national emergency at the southern border. Critically, this order included a directive for the Secretaries of Defense and Homeland Security to submit recommendations by April 20, 2025, on "whether to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807" to address the "invasion" at the border.

Evidence is mounting of a broader federal campaign to restrict gender-affirming care nationwide. The Department of Health and Human Services is preparing to release a federally sanctioned report on transgender health care that is expected to be sharply biased against gender-affirming treatments. A leaked internal NIH email directs staff to focus research on "the 'chemical and surgical mutilation' of children and adults" and on rates of "regret and detransition." This was confirmed by an NIH memo obtained by NPR, showing instructions to study outcomes of "social transition and/or chemical and surgical mutilation" among transgender youth and adults.

Simultaneously, the dismissal of top military lawyers and officials perceived as "guardrails" against executive overreach signals preparation for controversial actions. Defense Secretary Hegseth explicitly stated these firings aimed to prevent obstruction of presidential orders.

What's at stake: The precedent set by the successful use of the Alien Enemies Act creates a dangerous blueprint. Once a framework exists for classifying entire groups as "enemies" based on nationality, that same framework could easily expand to include other categories deemed threats to national security or public welfare.

For trans people already labeled in official rhetoric as threats to children, national security, or traditional values, the implications are chilling. If emergency powers can be successfully deployed against Venezuelan migrants with judicial approval, similar measures could potentially target organizations providing trans healthcare, community leaders, or protests against anti-trans policies.

Most worryingly, by the time such powers are more broadly invoked, the window for legal departure often narrows dramatically. Borders may close to targeted groups, passports may be invalidated, and movement may be restricted—all under the justification of national security.

This represents the most acute tipping point—one where waiting too long could mean losing the option to leave at all. Historical precedent from authoritarian shifts worldwide shows that once a group is officially designated as an internal enemy, orderly emigration often becomes impossible.

A Pattern of Legal Escalation

Authoritarian regimes often follow a predictable progression when targeting marginalized groups:

1. Administrative Erasure – Reinterpreting existing laws to strip rights quietly.

2. Resource Starvation – Cutting off healthcare, housing, and legal aid infrastructure.

3. Criminalization of Support – Prosecuting allies and providers.

4. Criminalization of Identity – Making public expression itself illegal.

5. Emergency Powers – Detaining or forcibly relocating people under pretexts of security.

The U.S. has already implemented stages 1–3 and is testing stages 4 and 5. History warns us: what begins with budget cuts and rhetoric often ends in exile or internment.

This pattern echoes histories we cannot afford to forget: Nazi Germany’s restrictions on Jewish life began with administrative erasure years before mass violence. Argentina’s “Dirty War” began with surveillance before disappearances. In the U.S., Japanese internment started with residency limits—then mass detention.

Some may argue these concerns are exaggerated—that courts will reliably intervene to protect our rights. However, recent developments offer troubling lessons. Judicial protections have been uneven at best, and the Supreme Court's recent affirmation of the Alien Enemies Act use signals alarming judicial deference to authoritarian actions. Relying solely on institutions that have repeatedly marginalized us carries grave risks. It's crucial to acknowledge this vulnerability realistically, even while pursuing every legal and political recourse available.

Cis Friends, Now Is the Time

But this moment isn't just about trans individuals deciding to flee; it's equally about cis folks deciding to act.

This moment demands tangible, actionable solidarity from cisgender folks both within and outside the United States. Those within the U.S. must provide immediate practical support—housing, legal assistance, financial resources, and community defense. It is crucial to help establish secure networks that protect vulnerable trans individuals. Those abroad can actively advocate for policies supporting LGBTQ+ asylum and resettlement in their countries, provide direct support to trans people attempting to relocate, and help create international networks of solidarity and refuge. Now is the moment to leverage privilege, resources, and influence to protect trans lives tangibly and urgently.

Solidarity must become tangible. Here's what that looks like in practice:

For Cis Friends Within the United States:

1. Offer Physical Sanctuary – Your home may become literal sanctuary. Prepare a guest room or couch for trans people fleeing hostile states. If you own property, consider offering reduced or free rent to trans individuals who need to relocate quickly. Support safe house networks and underground shelters working to protect trans people in crisis.

2. Provide Material Support – Consistent monthly donations to local trans-led mutual aid groups sustain lifesaving work. $50 monthly to a local fund matters more than occasional large donations to national organizations. Consider direct financial support – paying for hormone prescriptions, covering moving expenses, funding emergency travel, or helping with name change fees.

3. Share Professional Skills – Healthcare providers: develop contingency plans for patients facing care disruptions and consider providing "off-the-books" support if legal protections disappear. Lawyers: offer pro bono support for name changes, immigration applications, or navigating legal threats. Mental health professionals: provide sliding-scale therapy for those experiencing trauma from forced displacement.

4. Build Infrastructure – Resistance requires organization. Help create secure communications networks that won't collapse under surveillance. Develop transportation systems for emergency relocations. Create document storage systems for those at risk of losing critical paperwork. Establish safe ways to distribute medication if formal healthcare channels become inaccessible.

5. Use Institutional Access – If you work in healthcare, education, government, or other institutions, become an inside advocate. Document and resist implementation of anti-trans policies. Create unofficial "workarounds" for discriminatory practices. Become a whistleblower when necessary. Use your position to shield trans colleagues and clients.

6. Prepare for Civil Disobedience – As legal protections erode, be ready to engage in strategic disruption. Discuss with trans-led organizations how you can support direct action. Be willing to put your body, freedom, and comfort at risk. The privilege that shields you from consequences makes you a valuable front-line defender.

For International Cis Friends:

1. Advocate for Asylum Reform – Push your government to explicitly recognize anti-trans persecution as grounds for asylum. Work to streamline processes for LGBTQ+ refugees and create specific pathways for those fleeing gender-based persecution in the United States.

2. Establish Landing Networks – Create local support systems for trans refugees arriving in your country. Offer temporary housing, language assistance, employment connections, and community integration. Help navigate unfamiliar healthcare systems and secure continuing access to gender-affirming care.

3. Facilitate Remote Work Opportunities – If you're an employer or have hiring influence, create remote positions accessible to trans people in the U.S. seeking economic stability while planning relocation. Sponsor work visas when possible and provide relocation assistance packages.

4. Support Documentation Preparation – Help compile evidence of persecution needed for asylum claims. Create guides for navigating your country's immigration system. Fund legal assistance for trans people navigating complex international relocation.

5. Build International Pressure – Advocate for your government to apply diplomatic pressure regarding human rights abuses against trans people. Support international monitoring of civil rights violations in the U.S. Fund journalism that documents the deteriorating situation for global audiences.

For All the Cis Folks:

1. Stay in Relationship – Commit to maintaining connections with those who leave. Exile is profoundly isolating; your continued presence in someone's life is invaluable. Regular check-ins, care packages, and virtual gatherings sustain crucial social bonds. If you host someone temporarily, maintain contact after they move on.

2. Educate Your Circles – Have difficult conversations with family, friends, and colleagues. Challenge anti-trans rhetoric in your communities. Create political pressure by making the issue personal. Your privilege allows you to be heard in spaces where trans voices are dismissed.

3. Recognize Your Responsibility – This isn't charity; it's justice. The crisis facing trans people isn't a natural disaster but a deliberately engineered political project. If you've benefited from systems that now threaten trans lives, you have a particular obligation to use those benefits in service of liberation.

4. Prepare for Long-Term Commitment – This struggle will not end quickly. The support needed isn't just for immediate crisis but for sustained resistance. Make plans for ongoing financial contributions, long-term housing support, and continuous political pressure. Think in terms of years, not months.

5. Follow Trans Leadership – Center trans voices in determining priorities. Support trans-led organizations and initiatives. Recognize that lived experience provides essential insight. Your role is to amplify, resource, and implement strategies developed by those most affected.

This isn't about charity. It's about collective survival. If you have wealth, spend it. If you have power or social capital, share it. If you have resources, move them toward those most at risk. The time for symbolic allyship has long passed. What's required now is concrete action, personal sacrifice, and unwavering solidarity in the face of escalating danger.

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

This question is deeply personal and profoundly political. Staying allows us to continue building networks of mutual aid, resistance, and community flourishing, actively challenging the oppressive policies of the Trump administration and laying groundwork for the future. Staying can mean maintaining our communities, witnessing oppression, and building resilience. However, staying also carries significant risks: exposure to increasing legal persecution, personal safety threats, and potential irreversible harm.

Leaving, on the other hand, can offer immediate physical safety, greater personal security, and the ability to build or join safer communities elsewhere. Yet, leaving involves significant emotional and practical costs: loss of community, significant financial burden, potential isolation, and the emotional toll of leaving one's home.

Both approaches are needed. This isn't a simple binary decision but rather a complex evaluation. Each choice requires clarity about personal risks, communal obligations, and strategic possibilities.

Remember that our struggle is not isolated nor new. We stand in a lineage of resilience, courage, and survival, stretching back through generations of marginalized people who have faced oppression with dignity and creativity. Whether we stay or go, our actions today form part of a broader, ongoing movement toward collective liberation.

Let us act not just to survive, but to be ancestors of a freer world. What we do now will echo beyond this season of cruelty.

Where Might Be Safer?

While no destination guarantees safety, some countries currently offer stronger legal protections and more stable access to gender-affirming care:

Canada

Recognized for incorporating gender identity into its human rights code and offering asylum to LGBTQ+ individuals fleeing persecution. However, recent conservative backlash introduces uncertainties about the future stability of these protections.​

Latin America

These countries often offer progressive legal frameworks—but may lack robust immigration pathways, and public attitudes can vary significantly by region.

• Argentina pioneered gender self-ID laws in 2012, requiring no medical or psychological approval to change legal gender.

• Uruguay permits self-ID and provides access to publicly funded gender-affirming care.

• Colombia allows legal gender changes through a simple notarial process.

• Chile’s Gender Identity Law allows individuals 14 and up to change their gender marker without medical gatekeeping.

• Costa Rica offers administrative gender recognition and broader anti-discrimination protections.

Oceania

• New Zealand provides comprehensive transgender healthcare through its public system and allows for streamlined legal gender recognition. Geographic isolation and limited immigration pathways present practical challenges.​

• Australia has strong protections in some states and increasing healthcare access, though national policies can be inconsistent.

Europe

Countries like Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Iceland, Malta, Norway, Ireland, Finland, Sweden, and Switzerland offer legal gender recognition, trans-inclusive healthcare, and broader civil rights protections. Many support self-ID, and some include transition-related care in public healthcare systems.

These countries are often at the legal forefront—but rising nationalism and anti-trans sentiment are on the rise across Europe, and immigration hurdles remain substantial.

Within the US?

Regional relocation to places like Minnesota, California, or New York may still offer short-term reprieve. These states maintain strong civil rights protections and medical access. But they, too, are increasingly constrained by federal overreach—and may not remain safe havens indefinitely.

No place is entirely safe. Legal recognition isn’t the same as social acceptance. But knowing our options—globally and locally—helps us prepare, not panic. What matters most is acting while we still can.

Some Resources for Trans Community Support

• Trans Lifeline: 877-565-8860 - Crisis support and resources

• National Center for Transgender Equality: transequality.org - Policy updates and document guidance

• Immigration Equality: immigrationequality.org - LGBTQ+ immigration support

• Transgender Law Center: transgenderlawcenter.org - Legal resources and state policy tracking

• Rainbow Railroad: rainbowrailroad.org - Emergency travel support for LGBTQ+ people facing persecution